For the longest time, I’ve been wondering about how we can predict decisions of Courts. Obviously, there are several variables which go into a verdict - known knowns (facts of the case), known unknowns (judicial bias, although Paul Novosad’s research on bias shows that it isn’t really a thing), unknown knowns and unknown unknowns.
But even then, research from other jurisdictions have shown that it is possible in limited cases to predict outcomes. Here’s some exciting research from the US on predicting US Supreme Court verdicts in Right to Counsel cases:
“The study is designed to demonstrate that, in at least one area of judicial review, it is possible to take some decided cases, to identify factual elements that influenced the decisions, to derive numerical values for these elements by using a formula, and then to predict correctly the decisions of the remaining cases in the area specified.”
Putting this out here so others with similar interests can weigh in!